The Kodak Syndrome: Seeing the Future but Failing to Transform

An article about how companies lose not because they fail to see the future, but because they fear that the future they see will disrupt today's profit engine — told through the Kodak Syndrome and Rahmi Koç's hard-earned reflections.

Sometimes, what destroys a company is not a wrong decision, but a past so comfortable that it keeps postponing the right one.

In 1975, Steven J. Sasson developed a portable, battery-powered, self-contained digital camera at Kodak.

In other words, Kodak did not hear the future from the outside.

It saw it from within.

But around the management table, the issue was not technology.

The issue was that digital photography would disrupt the order that fed Kodak's film sales.

Kodak saw the future.

But that future disturbed its existing profit model.

So it was read not as an opportunity, but as a threat.

Sasson and his team developed the technology. The patent was granted in 1978.

But instead of owning the revolution born inside its own walls, Kodak put it on the shelf.

That is where the real break happened.

Because some companies do not lose because they fail to see the future. They lose because they cannot allow the future they see to disturb today's comfort.

What happened next?

Digital photography grew.

Competitors captured the market.

Kodak, meanwhile, kept trying to protect the old order.

From 1978 to 2012, Kodak was not financing its future. It was financing its approaching bankruptcy.

And in the end, it collapsed.

This was not merely a financial failure.

It was the accumulated bill of postponed right decisions.

The Rahmi Koç Example

In Burçin Girit's interview with Rahmi M. Koç for the 100th anniversary of the Republic, there are three regrets from the past — and one threshold for the future.

This part must be understood through Rahmi Koç's own words. Because sometimes the strongest management lessons do not come from success stories, but from regrets stated openly years later.

We wanted to enter shipowning at the time. But the Turkish lira was not convertible then. They said, "If your ship breaks down in Singapore, how will you send money from Turkey?" Others might have sent money through the black market; we could not do such a thing. So we could not enter shipowning.

I wanted to enter banking. My father said, "İş Bankası is our bank." We were getting our loans from there. He thought, "If we now enter banking, that would not be right." Yet Sakıp Bey entered banking. We entered banking very late. Very late. That is one of my regrets.

Telecom came to us. Our colleagues did a study. They said, "We can reach this many subscribers in one year." It turned out they had calculated it completely wrong. Others, outside of us, reached three or four times the number of subscribers we had projected in a year. So we missed that too. I regret that as well.

The Question Asked to Rahmi Koç — and Why His Answer Matters

Rahmi Koç is asked this question:

"If you were 20 years old, what company would you start?"

His answer is artificial intelligence.

But the real power of the answer is not that he speaks about artificial intelligence with certainty. It is his reflex to examine the issue.

"This thing they call artificial intelligence, right? AI… Is it a terrifying thing? I would want to examine it."

Then, when asked what Vehbi Koç would have done, he answers from a very clear place:

"He would move step by step. First, he would let others enter. He would watch how they do it, and then act accordingly."

This sentence matters.

Because caution is one thing.

Ignoring is another.

Examining is one thing.

Putting it on the shelf is another.

That is exactly where Kodak lost.

So, What Threshold Is My Company Standing On?

How can I recognize it?

If the company is still making money, but feels uncomfortable with new ideas…

If the customer has changed, but the old customer is still being described inside the company…

If "this will disrupt the current business" comes before "how can we grow this?"…

If the younger team is explaining the future while senior management is defending the past…

If the data says one thing, but decisions are still made by habit…

If new products, new channels, and new markets are discussed, but nothing is truly tested…

If meetings talk about transformation, but the budget protects the old order…

The company is not preparing for the future.

It is extending the life of the existing order.

That is where the danger begins.

So, What Do We Do?

First, we accept this truth:

Making money today does not mean you are ready for tomorrow.

Sometimes profit is not a sign of strength, but the curtain that keeps you from seeing the approaching danger.

Then we stop defending.

Instead of saying, "That would never happen to us," we ask, "If it did, where would we break?"

Because transformation begins when a company stops deceiving itself.

We will not suffocate new ideas in meetings.

We will run small experiments.

We will look at the data.

We will take changing customer behavior seriously.

Because the future moves closest to the company brave enough to test it.

We will not sanctify the existing business.

We will protect it.

But we will not put it in front of the future.

Because yesterday's winning model can become tomorrow's heaviest burden.

That was Kodak's mistake.

It did not lose because it failed to see the future. It lost because it did not want to disrupt today's winning model.

Kodak invented the digital camera.

But it put its own future on its own shelf.

Final Word

Kodak showed us this:

Seeing the future is not enough.

As Rahmi Koç points out, the real issue is to examine it in time and take the right step at the right moment.

Otherwise, while you think you are growing your company, you may be financing your own bankruptcy — just like Kodak.

References

1. Google Patents. "US4131919A - Electronic still camera." Inventors: Gareth A. Lloyd and Steven J. Sasson; assignee: Eastman Kodak Co.; publication date: December 26, 1978. Accessed: July 9, 2026.

2. Associated Press. "Kodak cautions on business operations but remains confident it can meet debt obligations." Article on Kodak's digital transformation challenges, its 2012 bankruptcy process, and the company's later restructuring. Accessed: July 9, 2026.

3. Wired. "Kodak's First Digital Still Camera From 1975." Background on the first digital camera prototype developed at Kodak. Accessed: July 9, 2026.

4. Burçin Girit, interview with Rahmi M. Koç, special content for the 100th anniversary of the Republic. The Rahmi Koç quotations used in this article are based on the inte